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The British fleet of 35 vessels is to be raised to 90, consisting of 5 capital
ships, 10 cruisers, 24 destroyers, 2 aircraft carriers, 18 sub-marines, 4 supply
boats, 12 mine sweepers, 12 convoy boats, 6 mine layers, 1 repair ship.
It was Sir Robert Hoare who said that Britain would have a naval force
of equal strength in both the western and eastern hemispheres. It may be
assumed that as she will strengthen her navy to cope with Germany and
Italy, the British fleet in the Far East would be strengthened in like
proportion. The present plan for 90 ships may be increased to 100, or even
to 120. In such an event the Imperial Navy would have a more formidable
proposition to deal with. However, this is not to say that such a gigantic
undertaking is to be prosecuted at once as a preparation against Japan in
connection with the issue raised in China as an offshoot of the present
conflict. It is scarcely to be doubted therefore that from the purely military
point of view Japan has some advantage over Britain. In international
affairs, too, Britain's position is less advantageous. The pact concluded
between Germany, Italy and Japan presents a powerful front. The three
countries each and all are unmistakably encamped against Britain. Britain's
front is less formidable. As already stated, Britain is intrinsically set against
America. The question of the so-called command of the sea still remains
to be settled, and without its settlement the intrinsic opposition of the
countries will not be brought to an end. Of course, it must be admitted
that there is the possibility of America allying herself with Britain because
both are of the „haves" group, and are pledged to the cause of maintaining
a status quo. But such a combination would never be more than a tempo
rary arrangement.
France at present follows Britain, but it is scarcely imaginable that the
present French acquiescence in British policy would extend to the Far
East. The Soviet Union, essentially, will never be in accord with Britain.
Any superficial combination is always frail. Even at the last Nine Power
Conference these two countries were not on the best of terms. In the Far
East their policies are divergent and directed to different ends, and so the
chance of any friendly teamwork seems very remote.
While the combination of Germany, Italy and Japan stands on solid
ground, the group of Britain, America and France is less strongly bound.
This -makes Britain's position weak with regard to her dispute with Japan.
It is evident that not only from the military point of view but also with
regard to international affairs, Britain has no advantage over Japan.
Such being the case, it is scarcely possible that Britain, always astute
and wise, should be so venturesome as to provoke Japan to war. But it is
not beyond possibility that a war may break out between the two. As we
have already said, it is not a certainty but a contingency. The whole thing
depends on what line the diplomatic policy of Britain, always flexible and
elastic, will eventually follow. When the China conflict makes further
developments, and when China herself has been plunged in greater chaos,
Britain will be compelled to assume a more clear-cut attitude than now.
In the same hour we shall have a clearer vision of the situation as regards
war 'between Japan and Britain. Another determining factor will be the
trend of affairs in Europe. When the disturbances in Europe have been
aggravated or settled in some form or another, Britain will come out in
plainer colour in dealing with Japan.
And what if the worst should come The issue would unquestionably
be determined at sea. In the event of a naval battle, the chances are that
Japan would be successful. A naval encounter, however, is not certain to
take place even if the worst should happen. Britain, with her fleet of
inferior strength, would hardly be anxious to engage in a naval battle. Is is
more likely that her fleet would withdraw to the west of Singapore. The
London Economist recently gave a hint to the same effect.
